The season is less than a handful of days away from opening night, which means poolies have returned to their drafts. As a result, we updated our predictions at McKeen’s Hockey for the entire league.
I figured since we made these updates, it was only fitting to post the Leafs projections for the shortened season.
Originally posted the full season predictions here.
A few notes before we get into these.
Making predictions is mostly an effort in editorial, since the accuracy is clearly affected by that first injury, with effects downstream that affect others on the roster. I don’t take these numbers written in stone, but rather a guide somewhat, putting an expectation of the type of production, rather than trying to nail the production in every instance.
Methodology behind the predictions included both scouting and statistical – both conventional and advanced – analysis while sharing amongst the group and deciding on a consensus as we put together the annual yearbook.
Predicting for 82 games is difficult enough, but 48 games present a different challenge. It’s not simply a representation of 48 games of an 82 game schedule. It’s also not like taking the 82 game predictions and multiplying by a factor of .585 to get the representative 48-game results. It’s an almost new process taking the shortened season and limiting games to with the Conference.
As pure presentation, the following is the production of Leafs after surpassing 48 games played last season, not necessarily at the 48 game mark:
The line combinations for the original predictions mostly stayed the same.
The equivalent goals scored (or assists/points, etc) for an 82 game season multiplied by the 48 game factor (.585) for these results.
Phil Kessel leads the Leafs in goals and points in 2012-13, with something in the range of the typical 40-goal scorer, represented by the 23 goals.
First line teammate Joffrey Lupul pots 15 goals and both Mikhail Grabovski and newcomer James Van Riemsdyk end up with 13 goals.
The highest scoring defenseman is John-Michael Liles, with captain Dion Phaneuf not far behind.
|4||James van Riemsdyk||23||LW||44||13||17||30||0.68|
The total is 152 goals, which equals 260 over an 82-game season. Post your own predictions below. We’ve also linked to the Puck Prospectus VUKOTA projections run back in October, but haven’t pro-rated them for the 48-game season: