With 24 goals and 26 assists for 50 points only 33 games into this OHL season Greg McKegg is looking like a steal for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Drafted 62nd overall he’s carrying the offense for the Erie Otters and looking good doing it.
|2008 – 2009||16||64||8||10||18|
|2009 – 2010||17||67||37||48||85|
|2010 – 2011||18||33||24||26||50|
After the jump we’ll look at some statistics to predict how he’ll do in the NHL.
Gabe Desjardins, stat whiz extraordinaire, looked at what happened when players left one league and played in another the next year. How did their points translate? Obviously moving from the OHL to the NHL means a players point totals will drop, but by how much?
Pre lockout Mr. Desjardins published his work (pdf link). Post lockout it was updated by an Oilers blogger; Scott Reynolds. He broke it down not only by league but by player age. You can read his post at the Copper N Blue.
He ran the numbers and found that for 17 year old OHL players the scaling factor was .37 and for 18 year old NHL players the scaling factor dropped to .31. The math is simple, just multiply the player’s points per game by the scaling factor to find their NHL points per game. From there we could multiply by 82 to see what kind of season that would be.
|Age||OHL GP||OHL Pts||OHL PPG||Scale Factor||NHL PPG||NHL Pts (82 GP)|
|17||67||85||1.27||0.37||0.47 (@ Age 18)||39|
|18||33||50||1.51||0.31||0.47 (@ Age 19)||39|
That’s not too shabby; the NHLe says that Greg McKegg is already almost a 40pt player. He would have outscored Nikolai Kulemin last season. Cross your fingers Leafs fans; McKegg could be a real good player.